Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cavese · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cavese 4-2 Savoia
Original prediction
Cavese
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 44.7% | 37.7% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 29.4% | 30.9% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.46 | 25.9% | 31.4% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Cavese
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Cavese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CaveseLLDDW
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
SavoiaDDDWW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
CaveseSavoia
36.0Attack50.0
62.2Defence50.0
42.3Form50.0
49.1Power50.0
1.06xG0.96