Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cavese · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cavese 2-0 Casertana
Original prediction
Cavese
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.91 | 31.3% | 36.6% | 5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.1% | 30.3% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.25 | 40.6% | 33.1% | -7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.91 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Cavese
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Cavese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CaveseWLLDD
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CasertanaLDWWD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CaveseCasertana
36.0Attack33.3
62.2Defence33.3
42.3Form0.0
49.1Power23.7
1.22xG0.86