Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cavese · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cavese 5-2 Casarano
Original prediction
Cavese
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 09:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 42.8% | 46.6% | 3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.2% | 25.7% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.13 | 29.0% | 27.7% | -1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Cavese
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Cavese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CaveseDWWLL
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CasaranoDLLDW
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
CaveseCasarano
62.5Attack37.5
50.0Defence62.5
50.0Form45.8
55.3Power50.9
1.51xG1.04