Caudalvs
Sporting Gijón II
COMPLETEDSpain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/11/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Caudal 1-1 Sporting Gijón II
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 02:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 38.8% | 35.4% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.6% | 29.6% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.77 | 32.6% | 35.0% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.15 · Draw 2.15 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
29.6%
Model confidence
35.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60