Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Catania · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Catania are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Messina are 1W-2D-1L in their last 4 (WLDD), averaging 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 9 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Catania hold a 41.9-point power-rating edge (65.5 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 63.3% in the Coppa Italia Serie C, while Catania holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Catania
Probability
63.3%
Model confidence
63.3%
Catania has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.50/1.50