Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Catania · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Catania 6-0 Giugliano
Original prediction
Catania
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.33 | 68.4% | 62.0% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.49 | 20.2% | 21.0% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 7.97 | 11.4% | 17.0% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.3–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Catania
Probability
62.0%
Model confidence
62.0%
Catania has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CataniaLWWWD
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
GiuglianoWLLWL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
CataniaGiugliano
60.0Attack44.4
60.0Defence25.9
53.3Form33.3
57.6Power36.3
2.91xG0.92