Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Catania · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Catania 2-1 Crotone
Original prediction
Catania
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 59.9% | 44.8% | -15.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 24.0% | 28.1% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 5.64 | 16.1% | 27.1% | 11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Catania
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Catania has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CataniaWDWLW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
CrotoneWDLDD
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CataniaCrotone
100.0Attack66.7
83.3Defence66.7
100.0Form100.0
92.8Power80.3
1.58xG1.10