Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Catania · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Catania 0-0 Cosenza, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Catania 4-0 Cosenza
Original prediction
Catania
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 59.6% | 35.7% | -23.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.0% | 29.5% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 5.83 | 15.5% | 34.7% | 19.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.8 pts
Projected Score
Catania 0–0 Cosenza
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Catania
Probability
35.7%
Model confidence
35.7%
Catania has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CataniaLLLLD
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CosenzaLLLWD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CataniaCosenza
34.2Attack50.9
66.7Defence64.9
39.5Form58.8
47.7Power59.3
0.74xG0.96