Castro Dairevs
Salgueiros
COMPLETEDPortugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B · 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Castro Daire · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Castro Daire 0-0 Salgueiros
Original prediction
Castro Daire
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 37.4% | 37.0% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.4% | 30.5% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.74 | 33.2% | 32.4% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.09 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Castro Daire
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Castro Daire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60