Castro Dairevs
Portimonense
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 9/19/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portimonense · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Castro Daire 0-1 Portimonense
Original prediction
Portimonense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.51 | 12.0% | 29.5% | 17.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.36 | 20.6% | 24.8% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 1.33 | 67.4% | 45.8% | -21.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Portimonense
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Portimonense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.75/1.25
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20