Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Castelo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Castelo are 0W-1D-0L in their last 1 (D), averaging 3.00 scored and 3.00 conceded, while GEL are 0W-0D-2L in their last 2 (LL), averaging 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 1 of those 3 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Castelo hold a 10.3-point power-rating edge (58.3 v 47.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 55.0% in the Capixaba B, while Castelo holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Castelo
Probability
55.0%
Model confidence
55.0%
Castelo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/3.00
GF 0 · GA 3 · avg 0.00/1.50