Castellonensevs
Real Murcia II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 10/4/2026, 9:45:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Castellonense · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Castellonense 3-0 Real Murcia II
Original prediction
Castellonense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 46.8% | 39.7% | -7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.2% | 28.6% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.52 | 25.9% | 31.7% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.95 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Castellonense
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Castellonense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20