Castellonensevs
La Nucía
SCHEDULEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 11/11/2026, 5:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Castellonense · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.62 | 34.5% | 36.8% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.92 | 31.0% | 28.7% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.63 | 34.5% | 34.5% | 0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Castellonense
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Castellonense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CastellonenseLWLWW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
La NucíaLLWWW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CastellonenseLa Nucía
53.3Attack55.6
66.7Defence66.7
60.0Form66.7
61.0Power63.0
1.20xG1.12