Castellonensevs
Cieza
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 9/19/2026, 5:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Castellonense · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Castellonense 1-0 Cieza
Original prediction
Castellonense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 43.1% | 42.5% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.4% | 28.3% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.06 | 29.5% | 29.2% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Castellonense
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Castellonense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.50/1.25
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20