Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Castellón · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Castellón 0-0 Tenerife, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Castellón 5-0 Tenerife
Original prediction
Castellón
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.47 | 63.1% | 47.0% | -16.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.13 | 22.4% | 28.8% | 6.4 pts |
| Away | 6.40 | 14.5% | 24.1% | 9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.1 pts
Projected Score
Castellón 0–0 Tenerife
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Castellón
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
47.0%
Castellón has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CastellónWWWDW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TenerifeWDLWW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
CastellónTenerife
66.7Attack30.2
66.7Defence67.5
100.0Form44.4
80.3Power49.5
1.12xG0.67