Castellónvs
Sporting Gijon
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 10/25/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Castellón · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Castellón 1-0 Sporting Gijon, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Castellón 4-0 Sporting Gijon
Original prediction
Castellón
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 62.7% | 51.3% | -11.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.29 | 21.7% | 28.0% | 6.4 pts |
| Away | 5.93 | 15.7% | 20.7% | 5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.4 pts
Projected Score
Castellón 1–0 Sporting Gijon
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Castellón
Probability
51.3%
Model confidence
51.3%
Castellón has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CastellónWLDWW
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Sporting GijonWWWLW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CastellónSporting Gijon
60.0Attack36.7
86.7Defence70.0
76.7Form63.3
74.1Power59.3
1.20xG0.49