Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Castellón · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Castellón 2-0 Albacete
Original prediction
Castellón
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 60.2% | 48.6% | -11.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.09 | 22.7% | 27.0% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 5.45 | 17.1% | 24.5% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Castellón
Probability
48.6%
Model confidence
48.6%
Castellón has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CastellónWDWLD
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AlbaceteLLLDW
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CastellónAlbacete
66.7Attack39.7
66.7Defence55.6
100.0Form40.5
80.3Power47.6
1.52xG0.88