Castellónvs
AD Ceuta FC
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 10/4/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Castellón · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (15%), 3-0 (15%), 4-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Castellón 1-1 AD Ceuta FC
Original prediction
Castellón
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.23 | 75.3% | 63.7% | -11.6 pts |
| Draw | 6.17 | 15.1% | 20.0% | 4.9 pts |
| Away | 9.66 | 9.6% | 16.3% | 6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 5.17 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–015%
- 2.3–015%
- 3.4–011%
Predicted outcome
Castellón
Probability
63.7%
Model confidence
63.7%
Castellón has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 2 · avg 2.60/0.40
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00