Castellón IIvs
Lorca Deportiva
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Castellón II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Castellón II 2-1 Lorca Deportiva
Original prediction
Castellón II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 42.1% | 36.8% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.3% | 27.3% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.96 | 30.6% | 35.9% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Castellón II
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Castellón II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60