Castellón IIvs
La Nucía
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 10/25/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Castellón II · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Castellón II 2-1 La Nucía
Original prediction
Castellón II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 19:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 45.8% | 41.2% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.5% | 28.8% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.28 | 27.7% | 30.0% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.98 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Castellón II
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Castellón II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20