Castellón IIvs
Alcoyano
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 9/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alcoyano · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Castellón II 3-0 Alcoyano
Original prediction
Alcoyano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.10 | 29.2% | 28.6% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.7% | 27.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.15 | 42.1% | 43.6% | 1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–114%
Predicted outcome
Alcoyano
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Alcoyano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40