Castellanzesevs
Varesina
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie D - Girone D · 10/25/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Castellanzese · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Castellanzese 1-1 Varesina
Original prediction
Castellanzese
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 57.4% | 43.1% | -14.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 23.8% | 27.4% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 4.78 | 18.8% | 29.5% | 10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.78 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Castellanzese
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Castellanzese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 2 · avg 2.60/0.40
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40