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Ecuador · Copa Ecuador · 7/20/2024, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Aucas · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Castellana are 0W-1D-0L in their last 1 (D), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Aucas are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DLDDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 6 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Aucas hold a 50.2-point power-rating edge (21.0 v 71.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.8% in the Copa Ecuador, while Aucas holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Aucas

Probability

43.8%

Model confidence

43.8%

Aucas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

CastellanaD

GF 1 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/1.00

BTTS 1/1O2.5 0/1
AucasDLDDW

GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CastellanaAucas
33.3Attack66.7
0.0Defence83.3
16.7Form66.7
21.0Power71.2
0.96xG1.55
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