Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Casertana 1-2 Catania
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.84 | 31.9% | 34.9% | 3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.7% | 30.7% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.36 | 38.3% | 34.4% | -4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.7%
Model confidence
34.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CasertanaDWWDW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CataniaDWLWL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
CasertanaCatania
44.7Attack100.0
66.7Defence100.0
57.0Form100.0
58.0Power97.0
1.13xG1.00