Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Casertana 0-0 Bari, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Casertana 1-1 Bari
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 38.1% | 34.5% | -3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.0% | 31.8% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 32.8% | 33.7% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.12 · Draw 2.12 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Projected Score
Casertana 0–0 Bari
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.8%
Model confidence
34.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CasertanaDWLLD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BariDWLWW
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CasertanaBari
44.4Attack37.0
63.0Defence77.8
55.6Form63.0
56.8Power60.6
0.78xG0.80