Casaranovs
Salernitana
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone C · 10/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Casarano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Casarano 0-0 Salernitana
Original prediction
Casarano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.75 | 33.0% | 38.7% | 5.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.6% | 28.9% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.30 | 39.4% | 32.5% | -6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.29 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Casarano
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Casarano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20