Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Casarano · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Casarano 4-3 Giugliano
Original prediction
Casarano
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 42.0% | 43.3% | 1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.5% | 26.4% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.06 | 29.5% | 30.3% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Casarano
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Casarano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CasaranoLLWLW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
GiuglianoDDLDD
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CasaranoGiugliano
49.1Attack38.6
50.0Defence58.8
49.1Form46.5
50.6Power49.8
1.30xG1.05