Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Casarano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Casarano 3-1 Barletta
Original prediction
Casarano
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 42.8% | 39.3% | -3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.0% | 28.4% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 29.2% | 32.3% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Casarano
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Casarano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CasaranoLWLLW
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BarlettaDWDL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 2.25/1.75
BTTS 3/4O2.5 4/4
CasaranoBarletta
49.1Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
49.1Form50.0
50.6Power50.0
1.45xG1.25