Casaranovs
Audace Cerignola
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone C · 9/15/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Casarano · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Casarano 1-0 Audace Cerignola
Original prediction
Casarano
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 39.9% | 37.7% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.2% | 25.5% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.84 | 31.9% | 36.8% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Casarano
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Casarano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00