Casa de Portugalvs
Penya Encarnada
COMPLETEDAndorra · 1a Divisió · 10/18/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penya Encarnada · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Casa de Portugal 3-0 Penya Encarnada
Original prediction
Penya Encarnada
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 58.3% | 37.3% | -20.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 23.0% | 24.7% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 4.70 | 18.8% | 38.0% | 19.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Penya Encarnada
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Penya Encarnada has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.75/3.00
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80