Carshalton Athleticvs
Chertsey Town
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/7/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carshalton Athletic · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Carshalton Athletic 1-2 Chertsey Town
Original prediction
Carshalton Athletic
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 September 2026 at 00:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 52.2% | 42.5% | -9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.3% | 26.6% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.89 | 23.5% | 30.8% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Carshalton Athletic
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Carshalton Athletic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00