Carrick Rangersvs
Newry City AFC
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · League Cup · 10/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carrick Rangers · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Carrick Rangers 3-0 Newry City AFC
Original prediction
Carrick Rangers
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.19 | 76.1% | 48.7% | -27.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.79 | 15.6% | 23.9% | 8.3 pts |
| Away | 10.99 | 8.2% | 27.4% | 19.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Carrick Rangers
Probability
48.7%
Model confidence
48.7%
Carrick Rangers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40