Carrick Rangersvs
Larne
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Premiership · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Larne · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Carrick Rangers 2-5 Larne
Original prediction
Larne
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.17 | 21.6% | 29.6% | 7.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.7% | 27.3% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 1.66 | 54.6% | 43.1% | -11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Larne
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Larne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80