Carrick Rangersvs
Crusaders FC
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Premiership · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carrick Rangers · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Carrick Rangers 4-0 Crusaders FC
Original prediction
Carrick Rangers
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 58.6% | 38.2% | -20.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.22 | 21.6% | 25.4% | 3.8 pts |
| Away | 4.62 | 19.8% | 36.4% | 16.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Carrick Rangers
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Carrick Rangers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60