Carmarthen Townvs
Ynyshir Albions
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/12/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carmarthen Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Carmarthen Town 2-2 Ynyshir Albions
Original prediction
Carmarthen Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.0% | 45.4% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 23.9% | 23.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.46 | 26.1% | 30.9% | 4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.77 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Carmarthen Town
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Carmarthen Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60