Carmarthen Townvs
Trethomas Bluebirds
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 8/31/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carmarthen Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Carmarthen Town 2-3 Trethomas Bluebirds
Original prediction
Carmarthen Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.8% | 49.0% | 4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.80 | 23.8% | 21.7% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 31.4% | 29.3% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–17%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Carmarthen Town
Probability
49.0%
Model confidence
49.0%
Carmarthen Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 11 · avg 2.60/2.20
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80