Carmarthen Townvs
Llantwit Major
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/2/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carmarthen Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 4-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Carmarthen Town 1-2 Llantwit Major
Original prediction
Carmarthen Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 58.6% | 66.8% | 8.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.22 | 21.4% | 17.2% | -4.3 pts |
| Away | 4.53 | 20.0% | 16.0% | -4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.4–18%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Carmarthen Town
Probability
66.8%
Model confidence
66.8%
Carmarthen Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40