Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carlisle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Carlisle 2-5 Woking
Original prediction
Carlisle
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 56.7% | 49.9% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.94 | 23.0% | 25.1% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 4.48 | 20.3% | 25.1% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Carlisle
Probability
49.9%
Model confidence
49.9%
Carlisle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CarlisleLDDLW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
WokingDDWLD
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
CarlisleWoking
59.3Attack37.0
48.1Defence55.6
37.0Form33.3
49.0Power42.7
1.72xG1.07