Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wigan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Carlisle are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Wigan are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DWDDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Wigan hold a 25.5-point power-rating edge (42.2 v 67.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.6% in the EFL Trophy, while Wigan holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Wigan
Probability
51.6%
Model confidence
51.6%
Wigan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 3 · GA 0 · avg 0.60/0.00