Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carlisle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Carlisle 2-1 Tamworth
Original prediction
Carlisle
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 20:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 60.4% | 44.5% | -15.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 22.4% | 26.0% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 5.24 | 17.2% | 29.5% | 12.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Carlisle
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Carlisle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CarlisleDWWLL
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TamworthLWWLW
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CarlisleTamworth
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.81xG1.55