Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carlisle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Carlisle 2-2 Southend
Original prediction
Carlisle
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.9% | 38.4% | -2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.2% | 24.7% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.77 | 32.9% | 36.9% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.48 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Carlisle
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Carlisle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CarlisleLWDWD
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
SouthendWDLWW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CarlisleSouthend
72.2Attack66.7
44.4Defence55.6
44.4Form72.2
53.9Power66.7
1.80xG1.83