Carlislevs
Scunthorpe
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 8/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carlisle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Carlisle 4-2 Scunthorpe
Original prediction
Carlisle
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 54.6% | 47.7% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 24.0% | 24.7% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 4.29 | 21.3% | 27.7% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.68 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Carlisle
Probability
47.7%
Model confidence
47.7%
Carlisle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40