GGOALVIO

Carlisle logoCarlislevsNottingham Forest U21 logoNottingham Forest U21

COMPLETED

England · EFL Trophy · 9/3/2024, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Carlisle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Carlisle are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Nottingham Forest U21 are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Nottingham Forest U21 hold a 6.9-point power-rating edge (42.2 v 49.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.1% in the EFL Trophy, while Carlisle holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Carlisle

Probability

39.1%

Model confidence

39.1%

Carlisle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

CarlisleLLWLL

GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Nottingham Forest U21WWLWW

GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
CarlisleNottingham Forest U21
22.2Attack41.7
66.7Defence50.0
33.3Form50.0
42.2Power49.1
1.53xG1.32
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