GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 10/10/2023, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Carlisle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Carlisle are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Nottingham Forest U21 are 0W-0D-1L in their last 1 (L), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 6 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Nottingham Forest U21 hold a 6.9-point power-rating edge (42.2 v 49.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.1% in the EFL Trophy, while Carlisle holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Carlisle

Probability

39.1%

Model confidence

39.1%

Carlisle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

CarlisleWDLLD

GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Nottingham Forest U21L

GF 1 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/2.00

BTTS 1/1O2.5 1/1
CarlisleNottingham Forest U21
22.2Attack41.7
66.7Defence50.0
33.3Form50.0
42.2Power49.1
1.53xG1.32
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