Carlislevs
Kidderminster Harriers
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 10/10/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carlisle · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (8%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Carlisle 0-0 Kidderminster Harriers
Original prediction
Carlisle
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 62.2% | 43.7% | -18.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.24 | 21.4% | 25.8% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 5.54 | 16.4% | 30.5% | 14.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Carlisle
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Carlisle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00