GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 11/14/2023, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Carlisle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Carlisle are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Harrogate Town are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Carlisle hold a 5.0-point power-rating edge (42.2 v 37.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.5% in the EFL Trophy, while Carlisle holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Carlisle

Probability

46.5%

Model confidence

46.5%

Carlisle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

CarlisleLLWLL

GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Harrogate TownWLLWL

GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CarlisleHarrogate Town
22.2Attack55.6
66.7Defence11.1
33.3Form33.3
42.2Power37.2
1.94xG1.41
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