Carlislevs
Harrogate Town
COMPLETEDEngland · EFL Trophy · 11/14/2023, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carlisle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Carlisle are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Harrogate Town are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Carlisle hold a 5.0-point power-rating edge (42.2 v 37.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.5% in the EFL Trophy, while Carlisle holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Carlisle
Probability
46.5%
Model confidence
46.5%
Carlisle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80