Carlislevs
Forest Green
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/15/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carlisle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Carlisle 1-1 Forest Green
Original prediction
Carlisle
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 46.9% | 44.6% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 25.0% | 24.3% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.25 | 28.1% | 31.1% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.65 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Carlisle
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Carlisle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40