Carina Gubinvs
Sparta Katowice
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 3 · 10/24/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sparta Katowice · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Carina Gubin 0-2 Sparta Katowice, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Carina Gubin 1-3 Sparta Katowice
Original prediction
Sparta Katowice
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.23 | 17.2% | 16.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.02 | 22.5% | 21.6% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.50 | 60.3% | 61.9% | 1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Projected Score
Carina Gubin 0–2 Sparta Katowice
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Sparta Katowice
Probability
61.9%
Model confidence
61.9%
Sparta Katowice has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60