Cardiff METvs
Ynyshir Albions
COMPLETEDWales · Welsh Cup · 10/16/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cardiff MET · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cardiff MET 4-0 Ynyshir Albions
Original prediction
Cardiff MET
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 01:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.10 | 82.5% | 50.5% | -32.0 pts |
| Draw | 7.56 | 12.0% | 22.7% | 10.7 pts |
| Away | 16.61 | 5.5% | 26.8% | 21.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-32.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Cardiff MET
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
Cardiff MET has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20