Cardiff METvs
Trefelin
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 10/9/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cardiff MET · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Cardiff MET 3-0 Trefelin, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cardiff MET 1-3 Trefelin
Original prediction
Cardiff MET
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 67.3% | 77.2% | 9.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.64 | 19.4% | 13.4% | -6.0 pts |
| Away | 6.76 | 13.3% | 9.4% | -3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.9 pts
Projected Score
Cardiff MET 3–0 Trefelin
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Cardiff MET
Probability
77.2%
Model confidence
77.2%
Cardiff MET has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Cardiff METWWDLD
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
TrefelinLLDLL
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Cardiff METTrefelin
63.9Attack13.9
63.9Defence16.7
58.3Form8.3
60.0Power17.4
3.90xG0.49